 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          SHOCKS CORRELATED, 1 YES :   1
                          CORR STD :   0.1
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   0-inf-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   0-inf-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Cyclical   Unemployment
 
--------------------------
Contributions to cyclical components
--------------------------
 
  Columns 1 through 4

    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Output'}    {' UnR.Exp.4q'}
    {'50'        }    {'71.7'         }    {'58.4'   }    {'68.1'       }
    {'16'        }    {'61.0'         }    {'47.6'   }    {'56.7'       }
    {'84'        }    {'84.6'         }    {'71.1'   }    {'80.4'       }

  Columns 5 through 7

    {' Nom. Int. Rate'}    {' Inflation'}    {' Infl.Exp.4q'}
    {'64.6'           }    {'40.4'      }    {'55.7'        }
    {'42.0'           }    {'17.8'      }    {'29.9'        }
    {'84.1'           }    {'65.0'      }    {'79.3'        }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                         Baseline data   
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          PRIOR:   Flat
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Unemployment
 
    {'----------'}    {'Unemployment'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'71.8'        }    {'15.3'     }
    {'16'        }    {'62.8'        }    {'7.2'      }
    {'84'        }    {'81.1'        }    {'26.7'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          PRIOR:   Optimized Minnesota prior
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Unemployment
 
    {'----------'}    {'Unemployment'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'73.5'        }    {'14.5'     }
    {'16'        }    {'65.0'        }    {'7.5'      }
    {'84'        }    {'81.0'        }    {'24.6'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          PRIOR:   Optimized Minnesota + Long-run prior
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Unemployment
 
    {'----------'}    {'Unemployment'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'75.9'        }    {'17.0'     }
    {'16'        }    {'66.0'        }    {'7.6'      }
    {'84'        }    {'84.4'        }    {'29.7'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                         Angeletos et al. (2020) data   
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          PRIOR:   Flat
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Unemployment
 
    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'70.7'         }    {'7.6'       }
    {'16'        }    {'62.9'         }    {'2.8'       }
    {'84'        }    {'78.3'         }    {'16.5'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          PRIOR:   Optimized Minnesota prior
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Unemployment
 
    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'72.2'         }    {'7.2'       }
    {'16'        }    {'63.1'         }    {'2.6'       }
    {'84'        }    {'79.9'         }    {'16.8'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          PRIOR:   Optimized Minnesota + Long-run prior
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Unemployment
 
    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'90.3'         }    {'10.0'      }
    {'16'        }    {'85.3'         }    {'4.8'       }
    {'84'        }    {'93.9'         }    {'17.8'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                        (A) Contribution to cycles   
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          SHOCKS CORRELATED, 1 YES :   1
                          CORR STD :   0.1
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   0-inf-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   0-inf-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Cyclical   Unemployment
 
--------------------------
Contributions to cyclical components
--------------------------
 
  Columns 1 through 4

    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Output'}    {' UnR.Exp.4q'}
    {'50'        }    {'71.7'         }    {'58.4'   }    {'68.1'       }
    {'16'        }    {'61.0'         }    {'47.6'   }    {'56.7'       }
    {'84'        }    {'84.6'         }    {'71.1'   }    {'80.4'       }

  Columns 5 through 7

    {' Nom. Int. Rate'}    {' Inflation'}    {' Infl.Exp.4q'}
    {'64.6'           }    {'40.4'      }    {'55.7'        }
    {'42.0'           }    {'17.8'      }    {'29.9'        }
    {'84.1'           }    {'65.0'      }    {'79.3'        }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                        (B) Contribution to observables   
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   0-inf-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Cyclical   Unemployment
 
--------------------------
Contributions to observables
--------------------------
 
  Columns 1 through 4

    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Output'}    {' UnR.Exp.4q'}
    {'50'        }    {'74.4'         }    {'72.2'   }    {'58.5'       }
    {'16'        }    {'59.1'         }    {'50.9'   }    {'45.0'       }
    {'84'        }    {'80.0'         }    {'82.2'   }    {'65.6'       }

  Columns 5 through 7

    {' Nom. Int. Rate'}    {' Inflation'}    {' Infl.Exp.4q'}
    {'50.0'           }    {'21.7'      }    {'27.2'        }
    {'29.3'           }    {'8.7'       }    {'12.3'        }
    {'68.2'           }    {'43.2'      }    {'45.9'        }

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   0-inf-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   16-50-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Cyclical   Unemployment
 
--------------------------
Contributions to observables
--------------------------
 
  Columns 1 through 4

    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Output'}    {' UnR.Exp.4q'}
    {'50'        }    {'73.7'         }    {'77.9'   }    {'60.1'       }
    {'16'        }    {'59.8'         }    {'57.7'   }    {'48.3'       }
    {'84'        }    {'80.4'         }    {'85.3'   }    {'67.9'       }

  Columns 5 through 7

    {' Nom. Int. Rate'}    {' Inflation'}    {' Infl.Exp.4q'}
    {'55.0'           }    {'32.8'      }    {'36.0'        }
    {'33.9'           }    {'13.8'      }    {'17.9'        }
    {'74.4'           }    {'56.2'      }    {'55.7'        }

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   0-inf-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   32-50-Q
                          SHOCK TARGET:   Cyclical   Unemployment
 
--------------------------
Contributions to observables
--------------------------
 
  Columns 1 through 4

    {'----------'}    {' Unemployment'}    {' Output'}    {' UnR.Exp.4q'}
    {'50'        }    {'70.8'         }    {'79.0'   }    {'57.9'       }
    {'16'        }    {'57.1'         }    {'59.1'   }    {'46.5'       }
    {'84'        }    {'79.1'         }    {'85.9'   }    {'67.1'       }

  Columns 5 through 7

    {' Nom. Int. Rate'}    {' Inflation'}    {' Infl.Exp.4q'}
    {'57.3'           }    {'38.3'      }    {'39.1'        }
    {'36.5'           }    {'16.6'      }    {'19.7'        }
    {'76.9'           }    {'61.8'      }    {'58.8'        }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                        (A) Based on a TC-VAR   
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
                          SHOCKS CORRELATED, 1 YES :   1
                          CORR STD :   0.1
                          SHOCK TARGET:    Unemployment
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'16.6'      }
    {'16'        }    {'9.5'       }
    {'84'        }    {'24.9'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   16-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'25.5'      }
    {'16'        }    {'14.9'      }
    {'84'        }    {'36.3'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   32-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'29.6'      }
    {'16'        }    {'17.5'      }
    {'84'        }    {'41.7'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   16-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'19.5'      }
    {'16'        }    {'9.9'       }
    {'84'        }    {'30.9'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   16-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   16-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'29.4'      }
    {'16'        }    {'15.7'      }
    {'84'        }    {'43.4'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   16-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   32-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'34.0'      }
    {'16'        }    {'18.8'      }
    {'84'        }    {'48.5'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   32-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'21.1'      }
    {'16'        }    {'9.6'       }
    {'84'        }    {'35.4'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   32-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   16-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'31.8'      }
    {'16'        }    {'15.0'      }
    {'84'        }    {'48.4'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   32-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   32-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {' Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'36.7'      }
    {'16'        }    {'18.0'      }
    {'84'        }    {'53.5'      }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                        (B) Based on a VAR   
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
                          PRIOR:          Optimized Minnesota prior
                          SHOCK TARGET:  Unemployment
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'14.5'     }
    {'16'        }    {'7.5'      }
    {'84'        }    {'24.6'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   16-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'21.4'     }
    {'16'        }    {'11.2'     }
    {'84'        }    {'34.1'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   6-32-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   32-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'23.3'     }
    {'16'        }    {'11.5'     }
    {'84'        }    {'37.4'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   16-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'15.1'     }
    {'16'        }    {'7.4'      }
    {'84'        }    {'25.9'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   16-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   16-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'22.5'     }
    {'16'        }    {'10.7'     }
    {'84'        }    {'36.9'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   16-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   32-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'24.8'     }
    {'16'        }    {'11.1'     }
    {'84'        }    {'41.2'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   32-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   6-32-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'15.0'     }
    {'16'        }    {'7.1'      }
    {'84'        }    {'25.8'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   32-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   16-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'22.2'     }
    {'16'        }    {'9.4'      }
    {'84'        }    {'37.6'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
                          FREQUENCY ID:   32-50-Q
                          FREQUENCY VC:   32-50-Q
 
    {'----------'}    {'Inflation'}
    {'50'        }    {'24.5'     }
    {'16'        }    {'9.2'      }
    {'84'        }    {'42.6'     }

 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL DONE
